DNA fingerprinting for forensic identification: potential effects on data interpretation of subpopulation...

Some methods of statistical analysis of data on DNA fingerprinting suffer serious weaknesses. Unlinked Mendelizing loci that are at linkage equilibrium in subpopulations may be statistically associated, not statistically independent, in the population as a whole if there is heterogeneity in gene frequencies between subpopulations. In the populations where DNA fingerprinting is used for forensic applications, the assumption that DNA fragments occur statistically independently for different probes, different loci, or different fragment size classes lacks supporting data so far; there is some contrary evidence. Statistical association of alleles may cause estimates based on the assumption of statistical independence to understate the true matching probabilities by many orders of magnitude. The assumptions that DNA fragments occur independently and with constant frequency within a size class appear to be contradicted by the available data on the mean and variance of the number of fragments per person. The mistaken use of the geometric mean instead of the arithmetic mean to compute the probability that every DNA fragment of a randomly chosen person is present among the DNA fragments of a specimen may substantially understate the probability of a match between blots, even if other assumptions involved in the calculations are taken as correct. The conclusion is that some astronomically small probabilities of matching by chance, which have been claimed in forensic applications of DNA fingerprinting, presently lack substantial empirical and theoretical support.