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Explaining emigration intentions and behaviour in the Netherlands, 2005-10.

Hendrik P van Dalen1, Kène Henkens

  • 1a Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), NL-2502 AR The Hague, The Netherlands. dalen@nidi.nl

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Summary

Emigration intentions predict actual moves, with personality and public domain dissatisfaction being key drivers. Healthier individuals are more likely to act on their migration plans.

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Area of Science:

  • Sociology
  • Demography
  • Migration Studies

Background:

  • Understanding factors influencing migration decisions is crucial for policy and planning.
  • Previous research has explored motivations for emigration, but the link between intention and behavior requires further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine the predictive validity of emigration intentions on subsequent emigration behavior among native-born Dutch residents.
  • To identify key individual and contextual factors associated with the intention-behavior gap in migration.

Main Methods:

  • Longitudinal study design using data from two surveys (local and national) on emigration intentions.
  • Follow-up period of five years (2005-2010) to track emigration behavior.
  • Statistical analysis to identify predictors of emigration and the intention-behavior gap.

Main Results:

  • Emigration intentions were significant predictors of actual emigration, with 34% of intending emigrants moving within five years.
  • Individual personality traits and dissatisfaction with the Dutch public domain (e.g., crowding, nature access, pollution, crime) strongly motivated emigration.
  • Good self-reported health was a key differentiator between those who acted on their emigration intentions and those who did not.

Conclusions:

  • Emigration intentions are a reliable, albeit not perfect, indicator of future migration behavior.
  • Personal characteristics and perceptions of the home country's environment play a substantial role in motivating the desire to emigrate.
  • Health status is a critical factor influencing the realization of migration intentions, highlighting potential barriers for less healthy individuals.