[Prognosis for requirements for oral antidiabetic agents in Bohemia]

The authors elaborated the prognosis of requirements of oral antidiabetics (PAD) in the CSR, based on the estimate of the number of diabetics, using the method of demographic projection and the estimate of the number of diabetics treated by this therapy. The respective numbers of diabetics are circulated for five-year age-groups, separately for men and women. The need of PAD is derived from the mean daily dose per diabetic patient treated with PAD, separately for biguanides and derivatives of sulphonyl urea. The prognosis respects the basic factors which influence the need of PAD, i.e. the development of the diabetic population, incl. the evolution of its structure, and the development of the attitude to PAD therapy. The application of various assumptions on the future development leads various to variants of the prognosis. Comparison with the actual development is important for evaluation of applied therapeutic methods and for planning purposes. The results of the prognosis indicate that in 1995 the need of PAD in the CSR will vary between 140 and 190% of the consumption in 1980, however, as a result of an uneven development the annual increment could be as high as 19% or there could be a slight drop.