How community organizations moderate the effect of armed conflict on migration in Nepal

This study analyses micro-level variability in migration during armed conflict in Nepal. The analysis is based on a multi-dimensional model of individual out-migration that examines the economic, social, and political consequences of conflict and how community organizations condition the experience of these consequences and systematically alter migration patterns. Detailed data on violent events and individual behaviour during the Maoist insurrection in Nepal and multi-level event-history analysis were used to test the model. The results indicate that community organizations reduced the effect of conflict on out-migration by providing resources that helped people cope with danger, as well as with the economic, social, and political consequences of the conflict. The evidence suggests that the conflict caused the population to be systematically redistributed in a way that will probably affect its future socio-demographic composition--the extent of the redistribution depending on the resources available in each community.