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Updated: May 14, 2026

Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems

Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems

Published on: June 30, 2020

Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change.

Christopher M Little¹, Nathan M Urban, Michael Oppenheimer

¹Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. cmlittle@princeton.edu

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|February 14, 2013

Summary

Sea level rise assessments must include dynamic ice loss from all Antarctic basins, not just the main ones. New probabilistic models show non-major basins significantly contribute to future sea level rise, highlighting crucial uncertainties.

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Area of Science:

* Glaciology
* Climate Science
* Sea Level Rise Research

Background:

* Previous sea level rise (SLR) assessments often omit dynamic ice loss from large parts of Greenland and Antarctica.
* Upper bounds for Antarctica's 21st-century SLR contribution primarily focus on regions with concentrated present-day mass loss, such as Basin 15 (B15).

Purpose of the Study:

* To develop and apply a probabilistic framework for assessing ice sheet contributions to sea level change.
* To explicitly account for mass balance uncertainty across entire ice sheets.
* To evaluate the sea level rise contribution from Antarctic basins beyond B15.

Main Methods:

* Development of a probabilistic framework for ice sheet mass balance uncertainty.
* Application of the framework to Antarctic ice sheet projections.
* Analysis of contributions from both B15 and non-B15 basins.

Main Results:

* Ongoing mass imbalances in non-B15 Antarctic basins contribute significantly to SLR by 2100, comparable to B15 discharge and surface mass balance changes.
* Projections of SLR from non-B15 basins show wide variability based on the selected basins and observational datasets.
* Increased discharge uncertainty or decreased exceedance probability for upper bounds amplifies the contribution of non-B15 basins.

Conclusions:

* A comprehensive assessment of Antarctic ice sheet contributions to sea level rise requires considering all basins, not just B15.
* The framework highlights the significant, yet uncertain, role of non-B15 basins in future sea level rise.
* Future projections can be improved by incorporating updated observations and models across various spatial scales to refine mass balance uncertainty estimates.