Adaptive Flood Risk Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty Using Real Options and Optimization.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Adaptation
• Risk Management

Background:

• Adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are essential for managing future uncertainties.
• Developing these strategies is complex, involving climate change, mitigation measures, and multifaceted performance evaluations.
• Decision-makers face significant challenges in identifying appropriate interventions and their timing.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present a decision support methodology for assessing optimal flood risk interventions and their timing.
• To incorporate flexibility and adaptive measures into flood risk strategies using real options and multiobjective optimization.
• To evaluate potential flood risk management opportunities under future uncertainties.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a decision support methodology integrating real options and multiobjective optimization.
• Employed a state-of-the-art flood risk analysis tool to assess strategy risks over time.
• Applied a multiobjective genetic algorithm to identify optimal adaptive strategies.

Main Results:

• Initial results from the Thames Estuary application demonstrate the advantage of including flexibility in flood risk strategies.
• The methodology provides decision-makers with novel insights previously unconsidered.
• Optimal adaptive strategies were identified for the studied flood system.

Conclusions:

• Flexible adaptive measures are advantageous for flood risk management under uncertainty.
• The developed methodology effectively supports decision-making for flood risk interventions.
• This approach enhances the consideration of spatial and temporal dynamics in flood risk strategies.