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Use of implicit and explicit bayesian methods in health technology assessment
Nicola J Cooper1, David Spiegelhalter, Sylwia Bujkiewicz
1Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
Summary
The use of Bayesian methods in health technology assessments (HTA) has significantly increased over time. Implicit Bayesian analysis is more common than explicit use in HTA reports.
Area of Science:
- Health technology assessment
- Biostatistics
- Evidence-based medicine
Background:
- Bayesian methods offer a flexible framework for health technology assessment (HTA).
- Understanding the historical application of Bayesian approaches in HTA is crucial for future methodological development.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the trends in the application of implicit and explicit Bayesian methods within health technology assessments.
- To determine if the utilization of Bayesian techniques in HTA has evolved over a defined period.
Main Methods:
- A systematic review of secondary research reports from the UK National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) program (1997-2011).
- Extraction of data on the explicit and implicit use of Bayesian methods in the selected HTA reports.
Main Results:
- Bayesian analysis was present in 41% of the reviewed NIHR HTA reports.
- Implicit Bayesian analysis was prevalent (83%), while explicit Bayesian analysis was less common (2%).
- The adoption of Bayesian methods in HTA reports surged from 0% in 1997 to nearly 80% by 2011.
Conclusions:
- There is a clear upward trend in the utilization of Bayesian methods within health technology assessments.
- Increased availability of resources likely contributes to the growing adoption of Bayesian approaches in HTA.
- The potential for Bayesian methods to enhance future healthcare evaluations warrants further exploration.
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