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Contagion: epidemiological models and financial crises.
1Centre for the Humanities and Medicine, Faculty of Arts and Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, B926, 9F, Run Run Shaw Tower, Centennial Campus, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Journal of Public Health (Oxford, England)
|August 23, 2013
Summary
Economists use disease epidemiology models to understand financial contagion. However, this analogy can distort financial and public health systems due to inherent differences and context-specific models.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Epidemiology
- Financial Systems Analysis
Background:
- Economists have increasingly adopted epidemiological models since the 1990s to analyze financial system shocks.
- The concept of 'contagion' in finance draws parallels with infectious disease spread.
- Epidemiological modeling has influenced understanding of financial risk and stability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the application of epidemiological models in financial economics.
- To assess the benefits and limitations of using disease analogies in finance.
- To explore potential distortions and repercussions of this interdisciplinary approach.
Main Methods:
- Comparative analysis of biological and financial systems.
- Literature review of economic and epidemiological modeling.
- Critical evaluation of the analogy between disease spread and financial contagion.
Main Results:
- While analogizing can be fruitful, it may distort understanding due to fundamental differences between biological and financial systems.
- Context-specific epidemiological models may not translate effectively to financial contexts.
- Misconstruing public health aims in financial analyses can have negative repercussions for public health efficacy.
Conclusions:
- The analogy between epidemiology and financial contagion, while insightful, requires careful consideration of system differences.
- Over-reliance on context-specific epidemiological models can weaken the analogy's validity.
- Potential misinterpretations in financial analyses may impact public health strategies.
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