Past and future implications of near-misses and their emotional consequences

The Reflection and Evaluation Model (REM) of comparative thinking predicts that temporal perspective could moderate people's emotional reactions to close counterfactuals following near-misses (Markman & McMullen, 2003). The experiments reported in this paper tested predictions derived from this theory by examining how people's emotional reactions to a near-miss at goal during a football match (Experiment 1) or a close score in a TV game show (Experiment 2) depended on the level of perceived future possibility. In support of the theory it was found that the presence of future possibility enhanced affective assimilation (e.g., if the near-miss occurred at the beginning of the game the players who had nearly scored were hopeful of future success) whereas the absence of future possibility enhanced affective contrast (e.g., if the near-miss occurred at the end of the game the players who had nearly scored were disappointed about missing an opportunity). Furthermore the experiments built upon our theoretical understanding by exploring the mechanisms which produce assimilation and contrast effects. In Experiment 1 we examined the incidence of present-oriented or future-oriented thinking, and in Experiment 2 we examined the mediating role of counterfactual thinking in the observed effect of proximity on emotions by testing whether stronger counterfactuals (measured using counterfactual probability estimates) produce bigger contrast and assimilation effects. While the results of these investigations generally support the REM, they also highlight the necessity to consider other psychological mechanisms (e.g., social comparison), in addition to counterfactual thinking, that might contribute to the emotional consequences of near-miss outcomes.