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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Apr 14, 2026

Creating Objects and Object Categories for Studying Perception and Perceptual Learning

Creating Objects and Object Categories for Studying Perception and Perceptual Learning

Published on: November 2, 2012

How robust are probabilistic models of higher-level cognition?

Gary F Marcus¹, Ernest Davis

¹New York University.

Psychological Science

|October 3, 2013

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

The mind is often seen as a rational Bayesian inference engine, but this popular theory is less promising than believed. This view is undermined by questionable practices and the equation of probabilistic inference with rationality is not justified.

Keywords:

Bayesian models cognition(s)optimality

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Area of Science:

Cognitive Science
Computational Neuroscience
Philosophy of Mind

Background:

The theory of the mind as a rational engine of probabilistic inference is increasingly popular.
This perspective is applied across diverse domains like word learning, pragmatics, naive physics, and future prediction.

Purpose of the Study:

To critically evaluate the Bayesian models of inference as a theory of mind.
To challenge the widespread assumption that probabilistic inference equates to rationality or optimality.

Main Methods:

Reevaluation of post hoc practices commonly used in Bayesian modeling.
Conceptual analysis of the relationship between probabilistic inference and rationality.

Main Results:

The Bayesian models of inference are argued to be less promising than widely believed.
Post hoc practices associated with these models require significant reevaluation.
The common equation between probabilistic inference and rationality/optimality is demonstrated to be unjustified.

Conclusions:

The prevailing view of the mind as a Bayesian inference engine warrants skepticism.
The methodological and conceptual foundations of applying Bayesian models to cognition need further scrutiny.
A critical reassessment of the rationality assumption in cognitive science is necessary.