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Linkages between common wheat yields and climate in Morocco (1982-2008)
L Jarlan1, J Abaoui, B Duchemin
1Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, 18 avenue Edouard Belin, Bpi 2801, 31401, Toulouse Cedex 9, France, lionel.jarlan@cesbio.cnes.fr.
International Journal of Biometeorology
|November 2, 2013
Summary
Morocco's wheat yields fluctuate with rainfall. Large-scale climate patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) influence wheat production, offering potential for improved yield predictions.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Science
- Remote Sensing
Background:
- Moroccan wheat production is vital but highly variable due to unpredictable rainfall.
- Understanding large-scale climate oscillations is crucial for managing this variability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the influence of climate variability on Moroccan wheat yields.
- To identify key climate drivers and their impact on wheat production.
Main Methods:
- Analyzed de-trended wheat yields (1983-2008) from 11 provinces.
- Utilized meteorological data (rainfall, temperature), NDVI, atmospheric indices (NAO, SCA), and SST data.
- Examined relationships between climate variables and wheat yields at provincial scale.
Main Results:
- Confirmed significant relationships between rainfall/temperature and wheat yields at provincial scale.
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) impacts early-season growth, while Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) affects later stages.
- Lagged correlations with SST variability (Atlantic Niño, Atlantic tripole) offer higher prediction lead times.
Conclusions:
- Regional climate indices and variables provide valuable information for enhancing wheat yield prediction skill and lead time in Morocco.
- Climate phenomena have complex and competing influences on wheat yields.
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