Understanding long-term changes in species abundance using a niche-based approach

Area of Science:

• Marine ecology
• Population dynamics
• Zooplankton research

Background:

• Assessing species' habitat suitability is crucial for understanding population changes.
• Ecological niche modeling is key to predicting species abundance over time.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a simple, predictive approach for assessing habitat suitability and forecasting population changes.
• To apply this method to key zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus, in the North Sea.

Main Methods:

• Ecological niche modeling using Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Phytoplankton Colour Index (PCI).
• Utilizing the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) dataset to model species dynamics.
• Associating environmental parameters with species' ecological niches to assess area suitability.

Main Results:

• Successfully predicted the abundance of C. finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus over time.
• The approach accurately reflected multidecadal ecosystem shifts in the North Sea.
• Modeled species' dynamics mirrored documented transitions between cold and warm temperate states.

Conclusions:

• The developed method provides a reliable tool for assessing marine ecosystem health and predicting species' responses to environmental change.
• Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus serve as effective indicators for monitoring North Sea ecosystem status.
• This approach enhances ecological assessment by linking environmental preferences to observed population dynamics.