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How robust is the optimistic update bias for estimating self-risk and population base rates?
1Affective Brain Lab, Experimental Psychology, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Plos One
|June 11, 2014
Summary
People exhibit optimistic bias, readily updating beliefs towards positive future outcomes. This bias is robust for self-predictions but explained by prior beliefs when assessing population risks.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive psychology
- Social psychology
- Behavioral economics
Background:
- Humans often exhibit unrealistic optimism about their future.
- Belief updating is biased, favoring optimistic information over pessimistic information.
- This optimistic update bias has been primarily demonstrated for self-related predictions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether asymmetric belief updating, or optimistic bias, extends to estimations of population base rates.
- To differentiate between genuine optimistic updating and updating influenced by prior beliefs.
Main Methods:
- Participants' belief updating was assessed when evaluating information about personal future events and population base rates.
- Statistical analyses were employed to determine the role of prior beliefs in observed updating patterns.
Main Results:
- Participants showed asymmetric belief updating regarding population risks, but this could be explained by their initial beliefs (priors).
- Optimistic updating concerning the self, however, proved to be a robust phenomenon, unaffected by empirical variations.
Conclusions:
- While optimistic bias influences self-perception robustly, its effect on population-level risk assessment may be mediated by pre-existing beliefs.
- The study distinguishes between self-focused optimism and general belief updating tendencies regarding societal risks.
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