Novelty, coherence, and Mendeleev's periodic table

Area of Science:

• Philosophy of Science
• History of Science

Background:

• Predictivism posits that novel evidence provides stronger confirmation than evidence already known.
• Traditionally, novelty is defined temporally, but this has faced criticism for lacking a clear rationale.
• Use-novelty, where evidence is novel if not used in theory construction, has been proposed as an alternative.

Observation:

• Temporal predictivism faces criticism regarding the rationale for time order's significance.
• Use-novelty, while an alternative, presents its own theoretical challenges.
• Mendeleev's periodic table serves as a key historical case study in the predictivism debate.

Findings:

• Both weak and strong versions of use-novelty are argued to be problematic.
• Temporal predictivism is supported by the case of Mendeleev's periodic table, albeit in new ways.
• A form of symptomatic predictivism is proposed, linking temporal novelty to the reality of a theory's factual coherence.

Implications:

• Re-evaluates the role of temporal novelty in scientific theory confirmation.
• Offers a refined understanding of predictivism beyond simple temporal or use-based novelty.
• Provides a new framework for appraising historical scientific theories, like Mendeleev's periodic table.