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Values and uncertainties in climate prediction, revisited
Studies in History and Philosophy of Science
|July 24, 2014
Summary
Philosophers debate the role of values in science. This study challenges the idea that climate change predictions are solely value-free, arguing social values influence probability assignments, though perhaps less than claimed.
Area of Science:
- Philosophy of Science
- Climate Science
- Environmental Ethics
Background:
- Ongoing debate on the role of social values in scientific research.
- Eric Winsberg's model-based challenge to the value-free ideal in science.
- Focus on the influence of values in climate change prediction models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate Winsberg's argument regarding social values in climate change probability assignments.
- To examine the extent to which social values influence uncertainty estimates in climate prediction.
- To explore alternative challenges to the value-free ideal in the context of climate science.
Main Methods:
- Critical analysis of Eric Winsberg's model-based argument.
- Formulation of objections to Winsberg's claims on value influence.
- Comparison of Winsberg's argument with traditional challenges to the value-free ideal.
Main Results:
- Two objections are raised against Winsberg's argument.
- The objections suggest Winsberg may exaggerate the influence of social values on climate uncertainty.
- A traditional challenge to the value-free ideal is presented as highly relevant to climate science.
Conclusions:
- Winsberg's argument highlights the potential influence of social values in climate modeling.
- The influence of social values on climate prediction uncertainty may be less pervasive than Winsberg suggests.
- Traditional philosophical challenges to the value-free ideal offer a robust framework for analyzing values in climate science.
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