Spatial, Temporal and Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Maritime Piracy

Area of Science:

• Maritime security
• Criminology
• Geospatial analysis

Background:

• Maritime piracy poses a significant threat to global shipping and security.
• Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of piracy is crucial for effective counter-piracy strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate if maritime piracy incidents exhibit spatial and temporal clustering, similar to urban crime patterns.
• To analyze the geographic distribution and timing of pirate attacks worldwide.

Main Methods:

• Utilized worldwide maritime piracy incident data from the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency.
• Applied time-series models and contagion methods originally developed for disease outbreak analysis.

Main Results:

• Pirate attacks are concentrated in five distinct oceanic subregions, each with unique temporal attack series.
• Analysis over 16+ years indicates significant spatial and temporal clustering of pirate attacks, suggesting non-random, dynamic patterns.

Conclusions:

• Maritime piracy exhibits spatial clustering, and an attack elevates the risk of subsequent attacks in the same or adjacent locations.
• Identifying these patterns aids in understanding maritime piracy and improving predictive models for future attack locations.