Mountain runoff vulnerability to increased evapotranspiration with vegetation expansion
Michael L Goulden1, Roger C Bales2
1Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100; and mgoulden@uci.edu.
Summary
Climate change may reduce river flow as warming expands vegetation and increases evapotranspiration (ET). Projections show significant ET increases and river flow decreases in California
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Ecology
- Hydrology
Background:
- Climate change can decrease surface water availability by increasing upland vegetation cover and activity.
- The extent and impact of vegetation expansion on water resources due to warming are not well understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the cold limitation of vegetation and evapotranspiration (ET) in California's upper Kings River basin.
- To assess the sensitivity of river flow to vegetation expansion under future climate scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Quantified current vegetation and ET cold limitation in the Kings River basin.
- Employed a space-for-time substitution to model river flow sensitivity to vegetation changes.
- Analyzed climate projections for the Sierra Nevada region for the period 2085-2100.
Main Results:
- Runoff is highly sensitive to vegetation migration; projected warming could increase basin-wide ET by 28% and decrease river flow by 26% by 2100.
- A cold-limited zone for ET exists above 2,400 m in the Kings River basin, crucial for runoff generation.
- Warming of up to 4.1 °C could shift high ET rates 700 m upslope, with similar ET-temperature relationships across the Sierra Nevada.
Conclusions:
- Increasing montane evapotranspiration due to climate warming poses a widespread risk to California's surface water supply.
- Vegetation expansion driven by climate change significantly impacts river flow, highlighting the need for adaptive water management strategies.
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