Scaling up from convictions to self-reported offending.

Area of Science:

• Criminology
• Sociology
• Developmental Psychology

Background:

• Understanding the discrepancy between self-reported offenses and official convictions is crucial for accurate crime statistics.
• Previous research has not fully quantified the 'scaling-up factor' from self-reported to convicted offenses.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the ratio of self-reported offenses to convictions.
• To determine the probability of a self-reported offender being convicted.
• To explore factors influencing conviction probability, including age and race.

Main Methods:

• Longitudinal study of 506 boys from age 13 to 24 in the Pittsburgh Youth Study.
• Comparison of self-reported offenses (serious/moderate theft and violence) with official criminal records.
• Analysis of conviction probabilities based on self-reported offending data.

Main Results:

• An average of 22 offenses were self-reported for each conviction.
• The conviction probability for a self-reported offender was 54%, increasing with offense frequency and seriousness.
• African American boys had a higher conviction probability than Caucasian boys, potentially due to risk factor exposure.

Conclusions:

• Further research is needed to understand conviction gaps for frequent/serious offenders.
• Investigating self-reported non-offenders who are convicted is essential.
• Addressing racial disparities in conviction rates requires examining underlying risk factors.