Success in NCLEX-RN: identifying predictors and optimal timing for intervention

Area of Science:

• Nursing Education
• Health Professions Education
• Academic Performance Prediction

Background:

• Predicting success on the National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses (NCLEX-RN) is crucial for nursing program evaluation and student support.
• Identifying at-risk students early allows for targeted interventions to improve licensure rates and professional readiness.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify predictors of success on the NCLEX-RN.
• To determine the optimal time for identifying nursing students at risk for NCLEX-RN failure.

Main Methods:

• An ex post facto study analyzed data from 407 baccalaureate nursing program graduates (1984-1987).
• Variables examined included prematriculation (GPA, college type, age, sex), junior year (nursing theory grades), and pre-graduation (senior year nursing theory grades, Mosby ASSESSTEST).
• Discriminant analysis was used to assess predictive value for NCLEX-RN performance.

Main Results:

• Junior and senior year nursing theory course grades and the Mosby ASSESSTEST were strong predictors of NCLEX-RN performance (p < .0001).
• Discriminant analysis achieved 62% correct classification at prematriculation, 81% by the end of the junior year, and 86% by the end of the senior year.
• High-risk students could be accurately identified by the end of their junior year.

Conclusions:

• Nursing education interventions and support programs should be implemented by the end of the junior year for at-risk students.
• Early identification of students likely to struggle with the NCLEX-RN is feasible and beneficial.
• Academic performance in nursing theory courses and standardized assessment scores are key indicators for predicting licensure examination success.