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Updated: Apr 20, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Neglected tools for neglected diseases: mathematical models in economic evaluations
Hugo C Turner1, Martin Walker1, Michael D French2
1London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine (St Mary's Campus), Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine (St Mary's Campus), Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK.
New strategies are crucial for controlling neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Economic evaluations using dynamic transmission models are vital for effective resource allocation and achieving global health goals.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Health Economics
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- Current interventions for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are cost-effective but insufficient for WHO elimination goals.
- Novel strategies are required to accelerate progress in NTD control and elimination efforts worldwide.
Purpose of the Study:
- To emphasize the critical need for economic evaluations in guiding resource allocation for new NTD strategies.
- To highlight the importance of dynamic transmission models in assessing intervention impact, including indirect benefits.
Main Methods:
- Systematic review of mathematical models used in economic analyses of interventions against ten London Declaration NTDs.
- Analysis of 49 studies to identify the prevalence of dynamic transmission models in economic evaluations.
Main Results:
- Only 16 out of 49 reviewed studies utilized dynamic transmission models for economic analysis of NTD interventions.
- A significant gap exists in the application of advanced modeling techniques for evaluating NTD control strategies.
Conclusions:
- Incorporating economic evaluations with dynamic transmission models is essential for optimizing resource allocation in NTD programs.
- Addressing the identified gap in modeling approaches will enhance the effectiveness of future NTD interventions and accelerate progress towards elimination goals.
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