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Probability in reasoning: a developmental test on conditionals.

Pierre Barrouillet1, Caroline Gauffroy1

  • 1Université de Genève, Switzerland.

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|January 16, 2015
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The probability of "if p then q" is not consistently P(q|p) in reasoning. This "Equation" is a late developmental achievement, not fully supported by educated adults, challenging probabilistic theories of human reasoning.

Keywords:
ConditionalDevelopment of reasoningMental modelsProbabilitiesReasoning

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Developmental Psychology
  • Logic and Reasoning

Background:

  • Probabilistic theories propose a new paradigm for human reasoning.
  • A core assumption is the 'Equation': P(if p then q) = P(q|p).
  • This study investigates the prevalence of this assumption across development and conditional types.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore the developmental trajectory of the 'Equation' in conditional reasoning.
  • To examine how age, conditional type, and content influence the endorsement of the 'Equation'.
  • To evaluate the support for probabilistic theories of reasoning.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a probabilistic truth-table task to assess participants' evaluation of 'If p then q' probabilities.
  • Included participants across a wide age range, from early adolescence to adulthood.
  • Investigated basic, causal, and inducement conditionals with varying content.

Main Results:

  • The 'Equation' is a late developmental achievement, endorsed by a slim majority of educated adults.
  • Endorsement varies significantly based on conditional type and content.
  • Age-related changes mirror truth-value judgment development from prior studies.

Conclusions:

  • The findings do not support the probabilistic approach to human reasoning over alternative theories like mental models.
  • A modified mental model theory can explain the observed developmental patterns.
  • The 'Equation' is not a universally applied principle in human conditional reasoning.