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Mapping present and future potential distribution patterns for a meso-grazer guild in the Baltic Sea
Sonja Leidenberger1, Renato De Giovanni2, Robert Kulawik3
1Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences, Kristineberg, University of Gothenburg Kristineberg 566, SE-451 78, Fiskebäckskil, Sweden.
Journal of Biogeography
|February 6, 2015
Summary
Climate change is shifting Baltic Sea species distributions northward, potentially increasing grazing pressure on algae and raising extinction risks for some populations. This study models future habitat suitability for key species in the region.
Area of Science:
- Marine ecology and conservation
- Climate change impact assessment
- Ecological niche modeling
Background:
- The Baltic Sea, a large semi-enclosed brackish water body, hosts endemic species vulnerable to climate change.
- Understanding climate-induced shifts in species distribution is crucial for predicting food web dynamics and conservation needs.
Purpose of the Study:
- To map potential distribution patterns of a three-trophic-level community in the Baltic Sea under present and future climate scenarios.
- To analyze climate-driven changes in species distribution and assess potential consequences for the food web.
- To evaluate the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for key Baltic Sea species.
Main Methods:
- Developed open-source tools for ecological niche modeling and raster layer comparison.
- Modeled species distributions for meso-grazers (Idotea spp.), host algae (Fucus spp.), and a fish predator (Gasterosteus aculeatus) under current and 2050 climate scenarios.
- Utilized occurrence data from GBIF, literature, and museum collections, alongside environmental data layers.
Main Results:
- Habitat suitability for Idotea balthica and Idotea chelipes is primarily influenced by temperature and ice cover.
- A northward/north-eastward shift in distribution is predicted for all modeled species by 2050.
- Distribution ranges for Idotea granulosa and Gasterosteus aculeatus are expected to become more fragmented in the Baltic Sea.
Conclusions:
- Climate change is predicted to increase suitable habitats for Fucus vesiculosus, Idotea chelipes, and Idotea balthica, but decrease them for Idotea granulosa, Fucus radicans, and Gasterosteus aculeatus.
- The northward shift of Idotea balthica and Idotea chelipes may intensify grazing on Fucus radicans, increasing extinction risk for vulnerable Baltic populations.
- Rapid climate change poses significant threats to isolated Baltic Sea populations, necessitating urgent conservation strategies.
Keywords:
Baltic SeaClimate changeFucus radicansFucus vesiculosusGasterosteus aculeatusIdoteae-Scienceecological niche modellingfood webworkflowsMore Related Videos
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