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An early warning indicator for atmospheric blocking events using transfer operators.

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Scientists developed an early warning indicator for atmospheric flow regime transitions. This tool uses transfer operators to predict shifts from zonal to blocked flow, offering promising forecast uncertainty assessment.

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Area of Science:

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Meteorology
  • Complex Systems Dynamics

Background:

  • Persistent midlatitude atmospheric flow regimes exist with timescales exceeding 5-10 days.
  • Evidence suggests preferred transitions between these flow regimes.
  • Developing early warning indicators for these transitions is crucial for improved weather prediction.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an early warning indicator for atmospheric flow regime transitions.
  • Specifically, to predict the transition from zonal to blocked flow.
  • To utilize transfer operators on a reduced phase space for this prediction.

Main Methods:

  • Employed a hemispheric barotropic model.
  • Utilized estimates of transfer operators on a reduced phase space.
  • Analyzed the spectrum of transfer operators to study slow dynamics and non-Markovian behavior.

Main Results:

  • Identified slowest atmospheric motions with timescales of three to six weeks.
  • Detected meta-stable regimes and their transitions as almost-invariant sets of the transfer operator.
  • Explained regime metastability and preferred transition paths using the model's energy budget.

Conclusions:

  • The developed early warning indicator shows promising skill despite the simplified model.
  • Transfer operator approach is suitable for parallel use with operational deterministic models.
  • This method can enhance stochastic prediction and forecast uncertainty assessment.