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Testing Ecological Theories of Offender Spatial Decision Making Using a Discrete Choice Model
Shane D Johnson1, Lucia Summers2
1University College London, UK.
Offenders choose crime locations based on neighborhood social cohesion and proximity to home. Accessibility via street networks also influences adult offender choices for theft from vehicles (TFV).
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Urban Studies
- Spatial Analysis
Background:
- Crime is spatially concentrated, but research often overlooks offender residence.
- Understanding offender decision-making requires integrating crime location with offender home locations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine how neighborhood characteristics and proximity to offender homes influence spatial decision-making.
- To test predictions from crime pattern and social disorganization theories.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a discrete choice model.
- Analyzed data for detected incidents of theft from vehicles (TFV).
Main Results:
- Offenders prefer neighborhoods with low social cohesion and those closer to their homes or activity nodes.
- Neighborhood accessibility via street networks impacts adult offender choices.
Conclusions:
- Findings support theories linking crime patterns to social disorganization and offender proximity.
- Results offer insights for developing targeted crime prevention strategies.
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