Paddy crop yield estimation in Kashmir Himalayan rice bowl using remote sensing and simulation model

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Environmental Science
• Climate Science

Background:

• The Kashmir Himalayan region's geo-ecological fragility, strategic location, trans-boundary rivers, and socio-economic instabilities make it highly susceptible to agricultural land-use change.
• Food security and regional sustainability are significantly challenged by climate change impacts, competition for resources, labor shifts, and population growth.
• Assessing regional paddy rice yield is crucial for understanding and addressing these challenges.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the regional paddy rice yield in the Kashmir Himalayan region.
• To utilize the GIS-based Environment Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model for yield estimation.
• To provide data-driven insights for regional food security and sustainable agricultural practices.

Main Methods:

• Employed the GIS-based Environment Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model for paddy rice yield estimation.
• Integrated regional crop and soil databases, farm management data, and climatic data outputs.
• Validated simulated yield against observed data, achieving a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.95.

Main Results:

• The GEPIC model estimated an average regional paddy rice production of 4305.55 kg/ha.
• Paddy rice varieties in plains yielded an average of 4783.3 kg/ha, while high-altitude varieties yielded 4102.2 kg/ha.
• Simulated and observed yields demonstrated a strong correlation (R² = 0.95) with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 132.24 kg/ha.

Conclusions:

• The GEPIC model accurately simulates regional paddy rice yield in the Kashmir Himalayas.
• Yield variations exist between plain and high-altitude areas, influenced by crop varieties and environmental conditions.
• Accurate yield estimation is vital for informing agricultural policies and ensuring food security in vulnerable regions.