Recession and Divorce in the United States, 2008-2011

Area of Science:

• Sociology
• Economics
• Demography

Background:

• Economic downturns can influence marital stability through various mechanisms.
• Previous research offers conflicting predictions on how recessions affect divorce rates.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the impact of the 2008 recession on divorce rates in the United States.
• To examine the association between state-level economic indicators (unemployment, foreclosures) and the odds of divorce.

Main Methods:

• Development of an individual-level model to predict divorce among U.S. women.
• Analysis of data from the 2008-2011 American Community Survey.
• Testing for period effects and the influence of state foreclosure and unemployment rates on divorce.

Main Results:

• A significant, albeit temporary, decline in the national divorce rate was observed following 2008.
• State foreclosure rates showed a positive association with divorce odds, though not significant with state fixed effects.
• State unemployment rates did not demonstrate a significant effect on divorce odds.

Conclusions:

• The recession appears to have had a net negative effect on divorce rates, contrary to some economic theories.
• Further research is needed to reconcile the national trend with non-significant state-level economic associations.
• Exploratory findings suggest differential impacts of economic factors based on education level and specific economic indicators.