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The Coming Divorce Decline
1University of Maryland, College Park.
Socius : Sociological Research for a Dynamic World
|July 14, 2020
Summary
US divorce rates are falling, especially among younger women, indicating marriages are becoming more stable. This trend suggests fewer people will divorce in the future, leading to rarer, more enduring marriages.
Area of Science:
- Sociology
- Demography
- Family Studies
Background:
- Divorce rates have been a significant area of sociological and demographic research.
- Understanding trends in marital dissolution is crucial for social policy and family studies.
- Previous research indicated high divorce rates, particularly among certain demographics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze recent U.S. divorce trends over the past decade (2008-2017).
- To investigate the implications of these trends for future divorce rates.
- To identify demographic factors influencing changes in divorce likelihood.
Main Methods:
- Utilized marital events data from the American Community Survey (ACS).
- Employed statistical modeling to analyze women's odds of divorce.
- Examined age-specific divorce rates and characteristics of newly-married women.
Main Results:
- Observed a consistent decline in U.S. divorce rates from 2008 to 2017.
- Identified younger women as the primary drivers of this falling trend.
- Found decreased divorce risks associated with more recent marriages.
Conclusions:
- The U.S. is experiencing a sustained decline in divorce rates.
- Future marriages are projected to be rarer and more stable.
- Societal shifts indicate a move towards more enduring marital unions.
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