Estimated trends and patterns of road traffic fatalities in China, 2002-2012

This study examined the time trends and age distribution patterns of estimated road traffic fatalities (RTFs) in China over the period 2002-2012.

Data on age-, sex-, and region-specific RTF rates were provided by the Chinese Ministry of Health. The crude rates were standardized and the Mann-Kendall test was used to test the significance of time trends. Annual number of RTFs was calculated. To minimize the effect of yearly variations, magnitude of changes in and age distribution patterns of the RTFs were examined using mean values of 2 years.

RTFs increased significantly in China during the study period. Several features were identified for the RTFs in China. First, RTF rates skyrocketed in rural areas including towns and counties. Second, a significant increase in RTFs was also observed in cities even though the change in RTF rates was not statistically significant there. Third, individuals aged 20-24, 40-49, and 55-64, especially in rural areas, were particularly at risk for RTFs in recent years. Finally, RTFs became more common among middle-aged and older adults than young Chinese, with roughly 57% of all RTFs occurring among individuals aged 45 and above during 2011-2012.

RTFs increased dramatically in China during the past decade, especially in rural areas. Age distribution patterns of RTFs have changed there. Community-based public health education and intervention programs are warranted.