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Future Demand For Long-Term Care Workers Will Be Influenced By Demographic And Utilization Changes
Joanne Spetz1, Laura Trupin2, Timothy Bates3
1Joanne Spetz (joanne.spetz@ucsf.edu) is a professor at the Philip R. Lee Institute for Health Policy Studies and the Center for the Health Professions, University of California, San Francisco (UCSF).
Health Affairs (Project Hope)
|June 10, 2015
Summary
Demand for long-term care workers will grow robustly through 2030, driven by an aging population and increased use of home services. Policy efforts must focus on recruitment, training, and retention to meet this demand.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Health Services Research
- Sociology
Background:
- The US elderly population is diversifying, with increased reliance on home and community-based services.
- Understanding the impact of these trends on long-term care (LTC) worker demand is crucial for policymakers.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze current LTC use and staffing.
- To project demand for LTC services and workers through 2030.
- To assess how demand projections change under different utilization scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Utilized national surveys to analyze current long-term care utilization and staffing.
- Developed projections for LTC services and worker demand up to 2030.
- Computed alternative projections based on changing demographic and service utilization patterns.
Main Results:
- Occupations projected for significant growth include counselors, social workers, community/social services workers, and home health/personal care aides.
- Shifting utilization patterns, such as increased Hispanic service use or a move from nursing homes to home care, showed moderate impacts on overall demand.
- Demographic and utilization changes had minimal effect on the projection of substantial LTC employment growth by 2030.
Conclusions:
- Robust growth in long-term care employment is anticipated through 2030.
- Policymakers and educators must prioritize and fund initiatives for recruiting, training, and retaining LTC workers.
- Proactive strategies are essential to address the future workforce needs in the long-term care sector.
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