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Closing Yield Gaps: How Sustainable Can We Be?
Prajal Pradhan1, Günther Fischer2, Harrij van Velthuizen2
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Plos One
|June 18, 2015
Summary
Closing agricultural yield gaps can significantly boost global food production, meeting future demands sustainably. This approach enhances food self-sufficiency by optimizing crop yields on existing land, reducing the need for expansion.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Environmental Science
- Food Security
Background:
- Global food demand is projected to rise significantly by 2050, necessitating increased agricultural output.
- Expanding cultivated land has negative environmental impacts, including increased greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss.
- Sustainable agricultural intensification is crucial to meet rising food needs without further environmental degradation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify regions capable of meeting future food demand through yield gap closure on existing agricultural land.
- To analyze the potential for increased crop calorie production by achieving potential yields.
- To develop location-specific strategies for sustainable agricultural intensification.
Main Methods:
- Scenario analysis incorporating population growth and dietary changes to project future food demand.
- Assessment of potential crop calorie production by closing yield gaps in irrigated and rain-fed systems.
- Definition of input and management strategies to overcome biophysical and socioeconomic constraints limiting yields.
Main Results:
- Closing yield gaps could increase global crop calorie production by 24% (irrigated) and 80% (rain-fed) compared to 2000 levels.
- Most countries can achieve or improve food self-sufficiency by reaching potential crop production levels.
- Significant increases in fertilizer application (N, P2O5, K2O) are required globally to attain potential yields.
Conclusions:
- Achieving potential crop yields on existing land is a viable strategy for sustainable agricultural intensification and meeting future food demand.
- Location-specific management strategies are essential for overcoming yield gap constraints and ensuring sustainable intensification.
- The sustainability of increased fertilizer use depends on careful implementation of chosen management strategies.
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