Judgments of learning index relative confidence, not subjective probability

The underconfidence-with-practice (UWP) effect is a common finding in calibration studies concerned with judgments of learning (JOLs) elicited on a percentage scale. The UWP pattern is present when, in a procedure consisting of multiple study-test cycles, the mean scale JOLs underestimate the mean recall performance on Cycle 2 and beyond. Although this pattern is present both for items recalled and unrecalled on the preceding cycle, to date research has concentrated mostly on the sources of UWP for the latter type of items. In the present study, we aimed to bridge this gap. In three experiments, we examined calibration on the third of three cycles. The results of Experiment 1 demonstrated the typical pattern of higher recall and scale JOLs for previously recalled items than for unrecalled ones. More importantly, they also revealed that even though the UWP effect was found for items previously recalled both once and twice, its magnitude was greater for the former class of items. Experiments 2 and 3, which employed a binary betting task and a binary 0 %/100 % JOL task, respectively, demonstrated that people can accurately predict future recall for previously recalled items with binary decisions. In both experiments, the UWP effect was absent for both items recalled once and twice. We suggest that the sensitivity of scale JOLs, but not binary judgments, to the number of previous recall successes strengthens the claim of Hanczakowski, Zawadzka, Pasek, and Higham (Journal of Memory and Language 69:429-444, 2013) that scale JOLs reflect confidence in, rather than the subjective probability of, future recall.