Longevity enhances selection of environmental sex determination

Environmental sex determination (ESD) is a mechanism in which an individual develops as male or female largely in response to some environmental effect experienced early in life. Its forms range from sex determination by egg incubation temperature in reptiles to sex determination of photoperiod in amphipods. Previous theoretical work as suggested that ESD is favored by natural selection if the fitness consequences of the early environmental experience differ for males and females, so that an individual benefits by being male under some conditions and female under others. A drawback of ESD is that it enables climatic changes to influence the population sex ratio, and such fluctuations select against ESD. This study employed numerical analyses to investigate the balance between these two opposing forces. The negative impact of climatic fluctuations appears to depend greatly on species longevity: substantial between-year fluctuations are of little consequence in selecting against ESD in long-lived species because annual sex ratio fluctuations tend to cancel and thus alter the total population sex ratio only slightly. Thus, if a species is sufficiently long-lived, extreme ESD can be maintained despite only a weak advantage. This result offers one explanation for the failure to demonstrate an advantage for the extreme forms of ESD observed in reptiles.