Risk Preferences, Probability Weighting, and Strategy Tradeoffs in Wildfire Management.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Risk Management
• Behavioral Economics
• Wildfire Science

Background:

• Wildfire management involves complex risks, yet behavioral and cognitive responses of public agency managers are understudied.
• Understanding these responses is crucial for effective risk mitigation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate risk responses, including probability weighting and risk aversion, among federal wildfire managers.
• To examine how information framing, specifically regarding firefighter fatality risk, influences these responses.

Main Methods:

• A survey-based experiment using a multiattribute lottery-choice task was administered to federal wildfire managers.
• Lotteries were defined by fire suppression expenditures, private property damage, and firefighter aviation fatality risk.
• An information framing experiment tested the impact of fatality risk information on choices.

Main Results:

• Managers demonstrated risk aversion and nonlinear probability weighting, leading to choices not always minimizing expected costs, damages, or risks.
• Information framing influenced choices to reduce aviation fatality risks.
• Framing exacerbated nonlinear probability weighting in decision-making.

Conclusions:

• Wildfire managers' decisions are influenced by behavioral and cognitive factors like risk aversion and probability weighting.
• Framing effects can alter risk perceptions and choices, with potential trade-offs between different risk types.
• Findings highlight the need to incorporate behavioral insights into wildfire risk management frameworks.