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The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation.

Amy Clement1, Katinka Bellomo2, Lisa N Murphy2

  • 1Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA. aclement@rsmas.miami.edu.

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Summary

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is driven by atmospheric circulation, not ocean currents like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Climate models show AMO features even when ocean heat transport is fixed, suggesting a new understanding of this major climate variability mode.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Oceanography
  • Atmospheric Science

Background:

  • The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a significant climate pattern impacting society.
  • Prevailing theories attribute AMO's driver to ocean circulation, particularly the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the primary drivers of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
  • To challenge the established view of the AMOC as the cause of the AMO.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized climate models with prescribed ocean heat transport to isolate atmospheric influence.
  • Assessed the impact of interactive ocean-atmosphere coupling on AMO characteristics.

Main Results:

  • Climate models successfully reproduced key AMO features with fixed ocean heat transport.
  • Interactive ocean-atmosphere coupling did not substantially alter AMO characteristics in current models.

Conclusions:

  • The AMO appears to be a response to stochastic forcing from mid-latitude atmospheric circulation.
  • Ocean circulation changes, including AMOC shifts, are likely consequences rather than causes of the AMO.
  • Thermal coupling in the tropics plays a role in the AMO phenomenon.