Conditional risk for posttraumatic stress disorder in an epidemiological study of a Brazilian urban population

Conditional risk for PTSD is the risk of developing PTSD after exposure to traumatic events. This epidemiological study of the general urban population from the two largest cities in Brazil reports exposure to traumatic events; conditional risk for PTSD; and proportion/estimated number of PTSD cases secondary to each type of traumatic event.

Cross-sectional study of general population (15-75 y.o.) from Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. PTSD was assessed through Composite International Diagnostic Interview 2.1.

Our main findings, from 3744 participants, were: 1) high prevalence of traumatic events (86%), urban violence being the most common; 2) conditional risk for PTSD was 11.1%; 3) women (15.9%) have overall conditional risk 3 times higher than men (5.1%); 4) war-related trauma (67.8%), childhood sexual abuse (49.1%) and adult sexual violence (44.1%) had the highest conditional risks; 5) 35% of PTSD cases (estimated 435,970 individuals) were secondary to sudden/unexpected death of a close person, and 40% secondary to interpersonal violence.

Brazilian urban population is highly exposed to urban violence, and overall conditional risk for PTSD was 11.1%. Violence prevention and enhancement of resilience should be part of public policies, and mental health sequelae of trauma should be better recognized and treated.