Personalization Based on Grouping Strategies for Short-Term Cardiovascular Event Risk Assessment

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Medical Informatics
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death in Europe, accounting for 47% of all mortality.
• Accurate cardiovascular risk assessment is crucial for selecting optimal patient treatments and preventing adverse events.
• Existing cardiovascular risk scores exhibit similar performance, complicating the selection of the most appropriate tool for individual patients.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a novel strategy for cardiovascular risk assessment by combining existing risk scores.
• To enhance the accuracy of cardiovascular event prediction through personalized, group-based risk score application.
• To overcome the limitations of choosing a single risk score by leveraging a more adaptable and accurate combined approach.

Main Methods:

• A novel method was developed to combine multiple cardiovascular risk scores through group-based personalization.
• Patients were assigned to the most similar risk group, enabling the selection of the most adequate risk score for their profile.
• The strategy was validated using the Santa Cruz Dataset, comparing its performance against individual risk scores.

Main Results:

• The proposed combined risk score strategy successfully maintained the highest sensitivity in predicting cardiovascular events.
• Specificity was improved by 13% compared to the highest values achieved by individual risk scores (GRACE, TIMI, PURSUIT).
• The personalized, group-based approach demonstrated superior overall performance compared to individual risk assessment tools.

Conclusions:

• Combining cardiovascular risk scores using group-based personalization offers a more accurate and effective approach to risk assessment.
• This strategy addresses the challenge of selecting the most adequate risk score, improving clinical decision-making.
• The findings suggest a significant advancement in cardiovascular risk stratification, potentially reducing mortality from cardiovascular diseases.