Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing

Area of Science:

• Criminology and Criminal Justice
• Legal Studies
• Public Policy

Background:

• Growing interest in risk assessment for criminal sentencing over recent years.
• Dual aims: reducing recidivism via incapacitation/treatment and lowering prison populations by diversion.
• Need to understand jurisprudential underpinnings and practical application of risk assessment in sentencing.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore jurisprudential theories of sentencing, differentiating those that support or preclude risk assessment.
• To characterize and illustrate the diverse roles of risk assessment within the sentencing process.
• To clarify ambiguities surrounding the definition of 'risk' and optimal timing for risk assessment of offenders.

Main Methods:

• Review and analysis of jurisprudential theories relevant to criminal sentencing.
• Characterization and illustration of risk assessment's varied applications in sentencing.
• Conceptual clarification of 'risk' and assessment timing in the context of sentencing.

Main Results:

• Identified varying roles for risk assessment in sentencing, from incapacitation to diversion.
• Clarified the meaning of 'risk' and appropriate timing for assessment.
• Highlighted four key challenges: conflating risk with blame, group data vs. individual inference, risk assessment vs. risk reduction, and impact on disparities.

Conclusions:

• Risk assessment in sentencing presents significant jurisprudential and practical challenges.
• Critical issues include the conflation of risk and blame, and the potential for group data to obscure individual circumstances.
• The impact of risk assessment on racial and economic disparities in imprisonment requires careful consideration and further investigation.