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Updated: Mar 28, 2026
10:46
A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
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Relapse May Serve as a Mediator Variable in Longitudinal Outcomes in Multiple Sclerosis
Lael Anne Stone1, Gary Raymond Cutter2, Elizabeth Fisher3
1Mellen Center for Treatment and Research, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, OH.
Summary
Contrast-enhancing lesions (CEL) in multiple sclerosis (MS) do not directly predict long-term disability. However, CELs correlate with relapses, which in turn predict disability progression in MS patients.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Radiology
- Immunology
Background:
- Contrast-enhancing lesions (CEL) on MRI indicate inflammatory activity in multiple sclerosis (MS).
- The long-term relationship between CELs and disability progression in MS remains unclear, especially over 8-10 years.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between baseline CELs and long-term disability in multiple sclerosis (MS).
- To explore the role of relapses as a mediator between CELs and subsequent disability in MS.
Main Methods:
- 111 MS patients underwent baseline MRI and clinical evaluation (1989-1994).
- 94 patients were re-evaluated after a mean of 8 years with MRI and clinical assessment.
- CEL number/volume, relapses, and other MRI metrics (T2/T1 volume, brain parenchymal fraction) were analyzed.
Main Results:
- No direct correlation was found between baseline CELs and long-term disability status.
- Baseline CEL measures correlated with the number of subsequent relapses.
- The number of relapses correlated with subsequent disability and transition to progressive MS.
Conclusions:
- Baseline CELs do not directly predict long-term MS disability.
- Relapses may act as a mediator linking CELs to disability progression in MS.
- Further research with larger datasets is recommended to validate the role of relapses as mediators.
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