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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive psychology
  • Neuroeconomics
  • Behavioral economics

Background:

  • Overconfidence is a common cognitive bias affecting decision-making.
  • The digit ratio (second to fourth digit length) is a biomarker for prenatal testosterone exposure.
  • Existing literature suggests sex differences in cognitive performance and overconfidence.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the biological underpinnings of overconfidence.
  • To analyze the relationship between performance prediction accuracy, monetary incentives, and the digit ratio.
  • To explore sex differences in overconfidence and its relation to prenatal testosterone exposure.

Main Methods:

  • Participants completed the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) under incentivized and un-incentivized conditions.
  • Performance predictions and actual performance were recorded.
  • The second to fourth digit ratio was measured as a proxy for prenatal testosterone exposure.

Main Results:

  • Participants were, on average, overly optimistic about their CRT performance.
  • Monetary incentives improved performance.
  • Males scored higher than females on the CRT.
  • In un-incentivized conditions, males with low digit ratios (high prenatal testosterone) were more overconfident.
  • In incentivized conditions, males with low digit ratios were less overconfident.
  • These digit ratio effects were not observed in females.

Conclusions:

  • Prenatal testosterone exposure, indicated by the digit ratio, influences overconfidence in males, particularly in relation to incentives.
  • Findings suggest a complex interaction between testosterone, decision-making, and overconfidence, potentially explaining conflicting previous research.
  • The study highlights the role of biological factors in modulating cognitive biases and economic behavior.