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Edentulism in Brazil: trends, projections and expectations until 2040
Mayra Cardoso1, Ivan Balducci2, Daniel de Moraes Telles3
1Universidade Veiga de Almeida, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil, mayracardoso.mc@gmail.com.
Ciencia & Saude Coletiva
|April 15, 2016
Summary
Edentulism is declining in Brazilian teenagers and adults, with projections showing near-zero rates by 2040. However, edentulism is alarmingly increasing among the elderly, projected to reach over 64 million by 2040.
Area of Science:
- Oral Health Epidemiology
- Public Health Projections
Background:
- Edentulism, the condition of having no teeth, poses significant public health challenges.
- Understanding current edentulism rates and future trends is crucial for healthcare planning in Brazil.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze current edentulism rates across different age groups in Brazil.
- To project future edentulism trends for the years 2020, 2030, and 2040.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from three national oral health surveys.
- Calculated the percentage of edentulous jaws for various demographics.
- Employed logistic function modeling for edentulism projections.
- Incorporated population projections into the analysis.
Main Results:
- Edentulism shows a declining trend in teenagers (-0.04% annually) and adults (-0.96% annually).
- Projections indicate near-zero edentulism in teenagers and 1.77% in adults by 2040.
- Edentulism is increasing in the elderly population (0.76% annually), projected to reach 85.96% by 2040, totaling over 64 million individuals.
Conclusions:
- Edentulism is decreasing among younger Brazilian populations but presents a growing crisis among the elderly.
- Urgent public health interventions are needed to address the escalating edentulism rates in Brazil's aging population.
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