Improved survival boosts the prevalence of chronic myeloid leukemia: predictions from a population-based study

Due to prolonged survival, there will be many more chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients alive in the future. The aims of this work were to estimate the current prevalence of CML by using routine data and to project future patient numbers in Germany.

Data were available for about 10.5 million people in the statutory health insurance system in Bavaria for the years 2008-2013. Survival rates were adapted from two recent publications.

The mean estimated age-standardized (Old European Standard Population) incidence rates per 100,000 inhabitants were 1.300 and 1.768 for women and men. Based on the population data, we estimated a total number of about 9000 CML patients in Germany for 2012. We expect the number of CML patients to increase further until at least 2040-2050 with a maximum of more than 20,000 CML patients as the most probable scenario.

Using a restrictive definition for case patients, we do not think that there is much overestimation. As a consequence of this considerable increase of the prevalence of CML the burden for the health care system will increase with respect to costs and medical care needed. The procedure presented here allows to estimate the expected number of CML patients in other countries, too.