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Updated: Mar 18, 2026
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Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
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Underprotection of Unpredictable Statistical Lives Compared to Predictable Ones.
Marc Lipsitch1, Nicholas G Evans2, Owen Cotton-Barratt3
1Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology and Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Summary
Greater care is often given to predictable statistical lives than unpredictable ones, despite no ethical basis. This disparity, particularly for low-probability risks, represents a market failure needing policy intervention.
Area of Science:
- Ethics
- Risk Analysis
- Public Policy
Background:
- Ethical discussions often differentiate between identified and statistical lives.
- Limited attention has been paid to varying care levels for different types of statistical lives.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the differential care given to predictable versus unpredictable statistical lives.
- To argue for ethical parity in protecting statistical lives, regardless of predictability.
Main Methods:
- Conceptual analysis of ethical frameworks concerning risk and statistical lives.
- Examination of statistical challenges in estimating low probabilities.
- Analysis of institutional and economic incentives influencing risk perception.
Main Results:
- Predictable statistical lives often receive greater protection than unpredictable ones, even with equal numbers at stake.
- Underestimation of low probabilities and rational incentives contribute to this disparity.
- Societal aggregation can render individually unpredictable risks predictable.
Conclusions:
- There is no ethical justification for treating unpredictable statistical lives differently from predictable ones.
- The underprotection of unpredictable statistical lives constitutes a market failure.
- Policy interventions such as regulation or compulsory insurance may be necessary to address this failure.
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