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Towards a Decision Quality Model for Shot Selection in Basketball: an Exploratory Study
Ernesto Suárez-Cadenas1, Javier Courel-Ibáñez1, David Cárdenas1
1University of Granada(Spain).
The Spanish Journal of Psychology
|September 21, 2016
Summary
Basketball coaches can now evaluate player shooting beyond percentages. Key factors like defensive pressure and offensive rebound positioning influence scoring and game outcomes, aiding objective feedback.
Area of Science:
- Sports Science
- Basketball Analytics
- Performance Modeling
Background:
- Shot selection is crucial in basketball, impacting both immediate scoring and overall game success.
- Existing models often focus solely on scoring probability, neglecting broader game-contingent outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a shot selection quality model incorporating decisional cues.
- To predict both proximal (scoring) and distal (game outcome) results.
- To provide coaches with objective feedback beyond simple shooting percentages.
Main Methods:
- Systematic observation of 2976 jump-shots from 50 Euroleague matches.
- Regression analysis to link decisional cues (opposition, distance, rebound/balance disposition) to outcomes.
- Analysis of shooting effectiveness, offensive rebound, and defensive balance on game results.
Main Results:
- Increased opposition and distance decreased scoring probability.
- Better offensive rebound disposition increased rebound chances.
- Defensive balance disposition decreased fast-break probability.
- Shooting and offensive rebound effectiveness predicted total points and game wins.
- Team offensive rebound disposition positively correlated with winning likelihood.
Conclusions:
- Decisional cues significantly influence basketball game outcomes.
- A comprehensive shot selection model can offer valuable insights for coaching.
- Objective feedback on shooting decisions can improve player performance and team strategy.
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