CLINICAL AND GENETIC PREDICTORS AND PROGNOSTIC MODEL OF RAPIDLY PROGRESSIVE HEPATIC FIBROSIS IN CHRONIC HEPATITIS C

The search for risk factors for rapid progression of hepatic fibrosis (HF) in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is a topical scientific and practical task. The purpose of the study is to identify clinical and genetic predictors and create the prognostic model of rapidly progressive HF in CHC. A retrospective cohort study of 125 patients with CHC has been carried out. The logistic regression and ROC-analysis have been applied for statistical data processing. The resulting analysis of 46 potential predictors of rapidly progressive HF in CHC identified the following significant ctiteria: male gender - ОR=3.44 [95% СΙ 1.60-7.39], р=0.001; increased levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) - ОR=4.93 [95% СΙ 1.54-15.76], р=0.007, particularly, moderate cytolytic activity - ОR=2.36 [95% СΙ 1.08-5.16], р=0.031; aspartate aminotransferase (АSТ) - ОR=3.65 [95% СΙ 1.41-9.43] р=0.007; γ-glutamiltranspeptidase (GGTP) - ОR=3.63 [95% СΙ 1.73-7.61], р=0.001; total bilirubin - ОR=3.53 [95% СΙ 1.47-8.47], р=0.005; alkaline phosphatase - ОR=9.18 [95% 1.11-75.80], р=0.039; alcohol intake>40 g/day (ОR=3.53 [95% СΙ 1.36-9.17], р=0.009), Gln11Gln genotype of the TLR7 gene (ОR=4.56 [95% СΙ 1.57-13.22], р=0.005), presence of chronic cholecystitis and/or pancreatitis (ОR=5.30 [95% СΙ 1.84-15.25], р=0.002). The prognostic model, comprising 6 predictors (level of GGTP>upper limit of normal (ULN), male gender, Gln11Gln genotype of the TLR7 gene chronic cholecystitis and/or pancreatitis, levels of total bilirubin and АSТ>ULN) have been created, demonstrating the statistical significance (p=0.000) and high operational characteristics (sensitivity - 85.5%, specificity - 68.3%, total number of the appropriate assignments - 76.8%, positive and negative predictive value - 72,6% and 82.7%,, respectively, the AUC ROC-curve - 0.840). Use of the created model will help to predict the rapid progression of HF in CHC and form the risk-group, requiring individual approaches to prescribing antiviral therapy for CHC.