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The GMENAC report and the PA profession
1James F. Cawley is professor of prevention and community health and professor of physician assistant studies at the George Washington University in Washington, D.C. The author has disclosed no potential conflicts of interest, financial or otherwise.
JAAPA : Official Journal of the American Academy of Physician Assistants
|September 30, 2016
Summary
The 1980 GMENAC report predicted physician surpluses, negatively impacting Physician Assistant (PA) program growth. However, this forecast was inaccurate, leading to significant PA profession expansion later.
Area of Science:
- Health Workforce Planning
- Medical Education Policy
Background:
- The Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) issued a report in 1980.
- This report predicted a surplus of physicians for the years 1990 and 2000.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the impact of the 1980 GMENAC report on the Physician Assistant (PA) profession.
- To evaluate the accuracy of the GMENAC physician supply and demand predictions.
Main Methods:
- Historical analysis of PA program development.
- Review of the GMENAC report and subsequent health workforce trends.
Main Results:
- The GMENAC report's predictions were inaccurate.
- The PA profession experienced a stagnation in program growth in the 1980s following the report.
- Significant growth in PA programs occurred in the 1990s and beyond.
Conclusions:
- Accurate prediction of health workforce supply and demand is challenging.
- The GMENAC report's inaccuracy highlights the difficulties in long-term health workforce forecasting.
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