Estimation of obsolete cellular phones generation: A case study of China

Rapid development of electronic technique has led to decreasing lifespan of electronic products. Meanwhile, the amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) is rapidly growing in recent years especially in China. The generation amount of WEEE is one of the basic information for waste management. In our study, the generation of obsolete cellular phones and metals containing of cellular phones were estimated from 1997 to 2025. The future average possession in per 100 inhabitants of cellular phones was predicted using logistic model. Moreover, the lifespan distribution of cellular phones was analyzed using Weibull distribution. Meanwhile, the generation amount of obsolete cellular phones and its metals containing were estimated by using population balance model (PBM) and substance flow analysis (SFA), respectively. The estimated results indicate that the average possession in per 100 inhabitants will reach to 111.2 and 118.3 units in 2020 and 2025, respectively, which is about two times higher than the average possession in 2010. In addition, the total possession amount of cellular phones are expected to exceed 1.64 billion units in 2025. Moreover, the estimated results show that 781 million units obsolete cellular phones were generated in 2015, and the number will grow up to 877 and 937 million units in 2020 and 2025, respectively. In 2025, the total weight of annual generation amount of obsolete cellular phones will exceed 140Gg. The precious metals such as silver, gold contains in obsolete cellular phones will reach 56,250 and 28,130kg, respectively, in 2025. The obsolete cellular phones are the typical secondary metal resources especially for precious metals. In order to improve the recycling efficiency, it is necessary to establish a comprehensive system of waste management.