Using death certificates to estimate the completeness of AIDS case reporting in Ontario in 1985-87

The completeness of AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome) case reporting in Ontario was assessed by reviewing all AIDS death certificates compiled by the Registrar General between Jan. 1, 1985, and Dec. 31, 1987. Several demographic variables were used to match death certificates with cases reported to the provincial AIDS registry. The completeness of case reporting was then estimated by examining the ratio of reported deaths of patients with AIDS to the total number of deaths reviewed. The estimated completeness of case reporting was 81.1% in 1985, 71.5% in 1986 and 75.4% in 1987; the overall rate for 1985-87 was 75.2%. The difference in the completeness of case reporting from year to year was not statistically significant. There was a significant increase from 1985 to 1986 in the proportion of unreported cases in people who had never been married (p less than 0.02). Reporting was not associated with the patient's age, sex, occupation or place of residence. The deficiency in AIDS case reporting could adversely affect the long-term planning of health care resources and the development of programs to prevent and control the spread of AIDS.