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The ratio of record high to low temperatures in the US is increasing. Climate models overestimate this trend, but an empirical projection suggests a significant rise in temperature extremes with future warming.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Meteorology
  • Extreme Weather Events

Background:

  • Observed temperature extremes in the continental US are characterized by the ratio of daily record high to record low minimum temperatures.
  • This ratio has increased to approximately 2:1 in the first decade of the 21st century, exhibiting significant interannual variability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the observed trends in temperature extremes over the continental United States.
  • To evaluate the performance of climate models in simulating these trends.
  • To project future changes in temperature extremes based on observed relationships with mean temperature increase.

Main Methods:

  • Comparison of observed temperature extreme ratios with simulations from global coupled climate models (CCSM4 and CMIP5 ensemble).
  • Analysis of discrepancies between model simulations and observations, including factors like historical temperature patterns and precipitation trends.
  • Development of an empirical projection of the record high to low temperature ratio based on its relationship with mean temperature increase, using observational data from 1930 to 2015.

Main Results:

  • Climate models generally show higher ratios of record highs to lows than observed, partly due to the influence of the "warm 1930s" in observational data and differences in precipitation trends.
  • A robust, nonlinear relationship between the temperature extreme ratio and mean temperature increase was identified in both observations and model simulations.
  • An empirical projection indicates that for a 3°C warming in US temperatures, the ratio of record highs to lows could reach approximately 15 ± 8, a significant increase from the current average of just over 2.

Conclusions:

  • Observed temperature extremes show a clear increasing trend, with record highs becoming more frequent relative to record lows.
  • Climate models exhibit biases in simulating historical temperature extreme trends, necessitating empirical corrections for future projections.
  • Future warming is projected to substantially amplify temperature extremes in the US, with significant implications for climate adaptation and risk assessment.