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Innovation potential, not online buzz, drives cryptocurrency returns. Increased supply also positively impacts weekly returns, suggesting a more mature market than previously thought.

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Area of Science:

  • Financial Economics
  • Digital Currency Studies
  • Technology Innovation

Background:

  • Cryptocurrencies have gained significant market traction since Bitcoin's inception in 2009.
  • Previous research often attributed cryptocurrency price fluctuations to online media "buzz."
  • This perspective overlooks the inherent technological innovation potential of cryptocurrencies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify key factors influencing cryptocurrency market value variations.
  • To differentiate the impact of innovation potential versus media sentiment on returns.
  • To examine the influence of supply growth, liquidity, and fraudulent associations on cryptocurrency performance.

Main Methods:

  • Development and application of a novel metric for assessing cryptocurrency innovation potential.
  • Econometric analysis controlling for supply growth, liquidity, and fraudulent activity.
  • Investigation of weekly cryptocurrency returns.

Main Results:

  • Cryptocurrency innovation potential is the primary driver of increased returns.
  • Online media "buzz" shows a negative association with returns after controlling for other factors.
  • Association with fraudulent activity does not negatively impact weekly returns.
  • Increased supply is positively associated with weekly returns.

Conclusions:

  • Cryptocurrency market dynamics are distinct from traditional currencies and commodities.
  • The industry exhibits characteristics of a mature market, contrary to prevailing speculative views.
  • Innovation potential and supply dynamics are more critical determinants of value than media hype.