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A Psychophysics Paradigm for the Collection and Analysis of Similarity Judgments
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Bringing probability judgments into policy debates via forecasting tournaments
Philip E Tetlock1, Barbara A Mellers2, J Peter Scoblic3
1Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA. tetlock@wharton.upenn.edu.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 4, 2017
Summary
Political forecasting tournaments improve prediction accuracy using probability estimates, even for unique events. These structured competitions can also help depolarize debates and resolve policy disputes.
Area of Science:
- Political science
- Decision science
- Intelligence studies
Background:
- Political debates often lack accurate predictions due to vague language, hindering policy assessment and improvement.
- Forecasting accuracy is crucial for effective policy-making and understanding complex political landscapes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore how structured forecasting tournaments can enhance prediction accuracy.
- To investigate the potential of tournaments in improving policy dispute resolution and depolarizing political discourse.
Main Methods:
- A tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community was used to analyze forecasting methods.
- The study drew on literature concerning the effects of accountability on performance and decision-making.
Main Results:
- Forecasters demonstrated improved use of probability estimates for making predictions, including for unique events.
- Tournaments were found to be effective tools for knowledge generation in forecasting.
Conclusions:
- Structured forecasting tournaments offer a viable method for enhancing prediction accuracy and generating valuable knowledge.
- Tournaments show promise as mechanisms for depolarizing political debates and facilitating policy resolution through accountability.
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